The Best Revival of a Musical category is not going to be a mystery this year. Three shows dated their fall openings this week, and mija, I can already see the whole race from here.

Let me lay it out, because I cover the Tonys like it’s the Olympics and I have opinions about every lane.

The frontrunner, as of Monday, is “The Gilded Hour” at the Coronet. Renata Vidal leading, Sallie Ocampo directing, a November opening. I wrote last week about why that casting matters, so I won’t repeat myself — but a difficult score built around a leading lady who can actually carry the silences is exactly the kind of production the nominating committee falls for. They love a revival that solves a problem. This one is built to solve a famous problem.

Behind it, and closer than the headlines suggest, is the “Radiant” remount at the Belasco, opening in October under Priya Ferreira-Lund. I want to be careful here, because “Radiant” is the sentimental pick — everybody has a soft spot for that score — and sentiment is not the same as a reason to exist. Ferreira-Lund is a real director, not a caretaker, so I’m not writing it off. Pero a beloved title is the easiest thing in the world to remount and the hardest thing to justify. If this is the original production with fresh paint, the committee will smell it. They always do.

The third lane is the interesting one. “Streetlight Parade” at the Hthaway is coming back with a full reconception — new orchestrations, a stripped design, a director, Nolan Ashby-Cruz, who has said publicly he thinks the show was misunderstood the first time. Ay, that’s a swing. That’s a director telling you he’s going to argue with the received wisdom about a musical. It could be the most exciting night of the fall or it could be a lecture. I don’t know yet. But a genuine reconception is catnip to voters who are tired of tribute acts, and if Ashby-Cruz lands it, he jumps the whole line.

Here’s the honest part. It is August. None of these has played a paying audience. The number of times I’ve watched a “frontrunner” collapse in previews would fill a season — a frontrunner in August is a weather forecast, not a result. What I can tell you is the shape of the race, and the shape is: one production built around a star who can deliver, one betting on love, and one betting on an argument. Those are three real strategies. Only one of them wins.

You want my early money? The star. It’s almost always the star. A revival that gives a voter a performance to point at beats a revival that gives them a concept to admire, nine years out of ten. I’ve watched it happen from a Shubert box office and I’ve watched it happen from a critic’s seat, and the lesson never changes.

I’ll be at all three, in a gown, taking notes, ready to be wrong. That’s the fun of it. Estamos aquí.

“The Gilded Hour” opens November 18; “Radiant” opens October 21; “Streetlight Parade” opens November 4.